The U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) has released a report on job lock and the potential impact of the Affordable Care Act. Empirical research generally indicates that certain types of workers are more likely to remain in jobs they would otherwise leave in order to keep their employer-sponsored health care coverage, although research does not allow for a definitive answer on the prevalence or implications of this phenomenon for the overall labor market.
The studies we reviewed generally found those workers who rely on their employer-sponsored health benefits are less likely to change jobs, leave the labor market, become self-employed, or retire when eligible, compared to those who have access to alternative sources of coverage. In addition, some research found that this job lock phenomenon may be particularly acute for individuals with certain preexisting health conditions.
However, because the study results and approaches used differ widely, it is difficult to quantify the overall prevalence of job lock based on those results. For example, the research examines a wide range of different populations and uses various definitions of job lock. Regarding labor market impact, the research we reviewed provides little empirical basis for assessing the aggregate labor market implications of job lock. This may not be surprising given the difficulty of designing research to address the variant ways job lock can affect different populations and account for the direct and indirect ways job lock could affect the labor market and economy.