OSFI Releases 18th Actuarial Report on the Old Age Security Program

Published November 06, 2023

​The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) released the results of an actuarial review of the Old Age Security (OAS) program as of December 31, 2021, including projections of future experience through the year 2060. ​

This is the 18th Actuarial Report on the Old Age Security (OAS) program since the implementation of the Old Age Security Act in 1952. The report takes into account:

  • all amendments to date regarding the OAS program statute.
  • recent demographic and economic data as described in section B.2 of Appendix B of this report.
  • various forecasts by demographic and economic experts.
  • the continuing and evolving impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, and
  • the impacts of the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, which was considered a subsequent event for the purpose of this OAS Program Actuarial Report, as described in section 2.3.
 

The main findings of the report are:

  • As a result of baby boomers gradually reaching age 65, the number of beneficiaries and expenditures are projected to steadily increase over the next four decades.
  • Expenditures are projected to increase from an estimated $77.8 billion in 2023 to $136.6 billion in 2035 and $276.5 billion by 2060.
  • The ratio of expenditures to the GDP is estimated to be 2.68% in 2023.
  • Due to the population aging, the ratio of expenditures to GDP is projected to reach a high of 3.0% by the early 2030s. Afterward, this ratio is projected to gradually decrease to a level of 2.64% by 2060, mainly due to expected slower growth in inflation compared to the growth in GDP.